I haven’t written about politics for some time, mostly because of certain keywords that permeate modern discourse: “Hateful”; “vindictive”; “mean”; “hypocritical” … okay, some of them aren't so new. Also, certain trigger words that cause those reactions, such as "politics", and "Have a nice day".
(By the way, "Have a nice day" is going to be my reply to any particularly wrathful comments to this post. It's time to steer away from useless shouting.)
Still, I do have a history of making predictions, so here’s what I think is going to happen over the next few years. Just to be clear, my Presidential prediction success rate is running at about 50%.
|There's a chapter on politics in this book. But the rest of it's pretty good.|
The Democrats will win control of the House of Representatives. This one’s crazy easy: The party opposing the sitting President almost always makes gains during off-year elections. The Dems also have their usual advantage of a fawning mainstream media, so I’m pretty confident of this one. We also had more than one “October Surprise”, and all of them screamed “go blue”.
The Republicans will maintain control of the Senate, although just barely. This will result in a scenario in which half of Congress actively does everything in their power to keep President Trump from doing anything, including picking out ties, having brunch, or watching the Superbowl. As far as actual work getting done, things won’t look much different.
Keep in mind that over the last several decades Democrats controlled Congress much more often than Republicans did, which helps explain why they’ve been so irate the last couple of years. I understand: I’d prefer to be in charge, too.
I could be wrong on all of this; conservatives are just as fired up right now as liberals are, but they feel saying so often leads to them being personally attacked, so many are keeping a low profile. On a related note, remember when we could disagree and still be nice to each other? No? Well, I was younger, then.
What I can guarantee is that political ads will continue to be more and more vicious, which is also a pretty easy call. In my area they’ve given up on words like “misleading” and gone straight to calling each other liars. We’re getting closer and closer to political campaigns looking like the Red Wedding in “Game of Thrones”. I predict that by early 2020, ads will start with wishes that opponents campaign in Iowa without their overcoats. They'll end with suggestions that the other guy get tarred (with toxic sludge) and feathered (with arrows).
|Can't we all just get along? No? Okay.|
It’s no great leap to say all this animosity and lack of general niceness is connected. We probably won’t get back to any form of civility until someone from outside the country attacks America again, or a comet takes out New Jersey, and possibly not then.
By the way, I predict the 2020 Presidential campaign will begin December 2nd, 2018. The fact that more and more Americans are becoming infuriated by the extended campaign seasons hasn’t gotten through to politicians any more than anything else has.
In 2020 the Presidential election will be won by Democrat Kamala Harris, after the other Democrats maim each other into bloody pulps in the primaries. She’ll have a majority of a few million and barely squeak by in the electoral college, which supporters will declare a landslide. I don’t know much about Harris, but she’s from California, so she’ll have her home state locked up. Her mother is Indian and her father Jamaican, which means any criticism of her can be stomped down with cries of “racist!” I’ve read up on Harris a little and I’m not overly impressed, but I suspect she really doesn’t give a darn what I think.
President Trump, taking his cue from the Democrats after the 2016 election, will pout.
Other predictions for the next few years:
A terrible storm will cause damage somewhere.
A politician will fall out of grace because of something that ends with “gate”.
Entertainment award shows will continue to ditch celebrating entertainment in favor of being political.
Some cool new technology will sweep the world.
A major business will go bankrupt.
Oh: And the American economy will turn down, headed toward a recession by the end of 2019, and be in full recession sometime in 2020. Our economy goes in cycles, and we’ve been riding a wave for too long—the wave is overdue to crash. I’m just the messenger.
Of course, by the time most of that happens you’ll have forgotten I wrote this, so right or wrong, I’m safe.
|Thus, I've earned the right to complain.|